Safe-havens are showing strength to open the new trading month, extending last week’s gains. Gold and the Swiss franc are heading up the charge, followed by a modest uptick in the Japanese yen. As of this writing (1:45 PM EST), the U.S. indices are mixed and Greenback is out ― safe-haven demand is in.
Earlier today, the U.S. Treasury Department auctioned 3 and 6-Month T-bills to the public. Once again, yields fell, led by the 6-Month T-bill falling to 2.255% from 2.320%. This has been the trend for quite some time now. Investors are anticipating that the FED will begin slashing interest rates and putting an abundance of “cheap money” on the street to avoid recession.
The USD/CHF Is On A Roll South
If you are long the USD/CHF, then it has been a miserable two sessions. Rates have fallen by more than 100 pips, crashing through par value at 1.0000.
Bottom Line: Until elected, I will be looking to buy in from just below April’s Low at .9926. With an initial stop at .9894, this trade produces 25 pips on a slightly sub-1:1 risk vs reward management plan.
From a macro standpoint, it appears that the year-long uptrend in the USD/CHF is poised to enter a corrective phase. After topping out at 1.0236, sellers have driven rates consistently lower. Parity offered little support; the next number up for scrutiny is .9900.