NZD/USD has been on a bearish trend since late March when the sentiment started turning negative again, following the deterioration of the European economy as the manufacturing PMI reports showed back then. The trade war has hurt the sentiment in financial markets which is also hurting the Kiwi as a risk currency.
We saw a retrace higher at the end of last week after the soft US manufacturing and services reports, and this pair climbed around 80 pips higher. The price broke above the 20 SMA (grey) and the 50 SMA (yellow) which has provided resistance on the way down, but the buyers failed to take out the 100 SMA (green).
This moving average has provided resistance a couple of times in April and it did the same again this time. The price didn’t even pierce it, which shows that this moving average was the target for the buyers. The 100 SMA is moving lower and it pushed NZD/USD lower for a few days until today when the sellers jumped in and reversed this pair to bearish again. So, the downtrend is back in place and the 100 SMA is still a good place to short this pair.