The week ended with a bang when the US posted a huge 224K new jobs on Friday. This week all the focus will be on exactly what that means for US interest rates going forward.
The US non-farm payrolls came in far better than most expected and there is now a bit more of a chance that the Fed won’t cut rates at their next meeting.
The week ahead is light on data, but heavy on the FOMC. We’ll be seeing the minutes of the last meeting released as well as hearing from Jerome Powell. He’ll likely be quizzed on what the jobs number will do to the chances of a rate cut in July and we can be sure the world will be listening closely for any clues.
The odds of a July cut are now all but priced in so a bit of doubt might see the USD rally a touch. It could also see GOLD keep moving around, which is currently back trading under the $1400 level.
Today, the data is thin, but there are a couple of second-tier releases for the EUR/USD. That’s German Industrial Production and Trade Balance.
It will be interesting to see how the USD and SPX responds with all the US traders back from the holiday-shortened week, so despite the thin data, we could see some volatility.
Forex Signal Update
The FX Leaders Team finished with 8 wins from 12 trades for another solid trading week, with a win rate of 66%.
EUR/USD – Pending Signal
The EUR/USD has fallen away sharply from the 1.1300 level thanks to a little bounce in the USD. We are looking for a short signal here, but most of the action this week will be on the back of the USD, so it could be a tricky one early on.
EUR/GBP – Active Signal
We are back in the EUR/GBP after successfully trading this one to the long side recently. Price has really not been able to get near the 0.9000 level as yet so there is a bit of protection behind here and hence we are short, looking for a push lower.
BTC has had a quiet few days after it most recently failed at the $12,000 level.
I mentioned earlier today, that price looks like it is starting to coil and volatility is contracting. That is often a sign that a move is starting to build.
I am still closely watching the $12,000-500 region and if that can break and hold, then I will be looking for another big run. As yet, price hasn’t been able to break upwards and is still making lower highs.