AUDUSD: Bullish but 0.7050 the real testLast Thursday’s signals produced an excellent long trade from the bounce at the support level identified at 0.6969.
The Australian dollar ripped higher on Friday to break above the 0.70 level rather handily. We are looking at a shooting star just above from the previous week, so if we can break above that this could really get the Australian dollar moving to the upside. I would not be surprised at all to see a little bit of a pullback in the short term though, but that should only offer value of a dip.
The Australian dollar rallied during the trading session on Wednesday to test the psychologically and structurally important 0.70 handle. This is an area that will attract a lot of attention because not only hasn’t been significant resistance previously, but it’s also a large, round, psychologically important figure. If we can break above that level, and perhaps even more importantly the shooting star that sits at basically 0.7050, then the Australian dollar can continue to climb. I think it happens given enough time but it’s very unlikely that the market can do it right away. After all, there are a lot of different things going on that could throw the Australian dollar around.
The Australian dollar initially fell during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the 0.69 level underneath. However, we turned around to show signs of life and bounced towards the 50 day EMA. While there could be a multitude of reasons for this move, I suspect that the biggest catalyst would be the release of an opening statement for the Humphrey Hawkins testimony by Jerome Powell. As soon as that happened, the US dollar got sold off as it became obvious that the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut interest rates. This was just more confirmation of what the market had already anticipated, so therefore the US dollar got hammered.
The Australian dollar broke down during the day on Tuesday, slicing through the bottom of the inverted hammer from the Monday session. That of course is a negative sign but more importantly to traders is that we broke down below the 0.6950 handle, an area that has been important support over the last couple of weeks. The fact that we broke down there is of course a very negative sign, and we have now fallen to fill a minor gap. I don’t put too much credence into the gap, but what I do pay attention to is the macro situation as well as the various support and resistance levels that I have marked on the chart.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the trading session on Monday as traders came back to work, in a bit of an attempt to show “risk on.” Ultimately, the Australian dollar is highly sensitive to the USD/China trade, and of course that seems to be in flux at the moment. Ultimately, the conversation between the United States and China will be highly influential as to where the Australian dollar goes.