U.S. Indices Look To Extend Recent Gains – Forex News by FX Leaders

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

The U.S. indices are off and running, looking to extend the gains of the past six sessions. For the first half-hour of trade, the DJIA DOW (+105), S&P 500 SPX (16.25), and NASDAQ (57.50) are firmly positive. With no primary market movers due out until Wednesday’s CPI report, U.S. equities are in a position to test April’s high by week’s end.

During the U.S. premarket hours, a few secondary inflationary metrics were released to the public. Here are the highlights:

Event Actual Projected Previous

Producer Price Index (MoM, May) 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%

Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM, May) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%

This collection of PPI numbers doesn’t tell us much on a month-over-month basis. However, if it is any preview of tomorrow’s U.S. CPI numbers, then inflation will continue to lag FED expectations. At this point, more talk of rate cuts is likely, as is a boost to equities.

U.S. Indices Drive At April’s Highs

The U.S. stock market hasn’t been dull in 2019. Volatility is the new norm and the June E-mini S&P 500 is driving toward the 2950.00 handle.

U.S. Indices Look To Extend Recent Gains - Forex News by FX Leaders — June E-Mini S&P 500 (SPX), Daily Chart

Here are the levels to watch in this market for the near future:

Resistance(1): Swing High, 2961.25
Support(1): Bollinger MP, 2842.50
Support(2): Daily SMA, 2835.75

Bottom Line: In the event we see the June E-mini S&P 500 extend weekly gains, the value area just beneath the Swing High lends premium short trade location. Accordingly, sells from 2957.25 with an initial stop loss at 2963.25 yield 25 ticks on a slightly sub-1:1 risk vs reward management plan.

US Session Forex Brief, June 11 – GBP is the Only Mover Today on the Back of Earnings Report – Forex News by FX Leaders

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

The GBP has been quite weak during May as the odds of Theresa May’s Brexit deal passing the British Parliament kept tumbling, which eventually led to the fourth and last rejection of the deal. Theresa May announced her resignation and now a race has begun for her successor. So, the politics have turned totally bearish for the GBP and fundamental have turned bearish as well. Yesterday we saw the GDP report post the second consecutive contraction in April of 0.4% after the first contraction in May, while manufacturing and industrial production, as well as construction output posted a major decline. As a result, market participants were expecting another soft report today for earnings.

But as we have seen time after time since the Brexit vote three years ago, the earnings don’t mind much for the rest of the economy or politics. The pace of growth has accelerated for average earnings in Britain in the last few years and the growth continues to be above 3%. Average earnings were expected to fall below 3% for April, but they remained above that level, coming at 3.1% as today’s report showed and the number for March was revised higher. Earnings excluding bonuses actually grew in April, so no effect here from Brexit. For this reason, the GBP was the only major currency with some decent price action today as it climbed 60 pips higher after this report was released, but it is reversing down again now since all fundamentals apart from earnings are quite dovish.

European Session

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence – The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence has been on a negative trend for quite some time but it turned positive in May. Although, the investor confidence was expected to decline this month, but remain positive. The confidence did decline among investors and it turned negative again, coming at -3.3 points for this month, so back to the negative trend.
UK Average Earnings Index – Average earnings were expected to cool off considerably in April to 2.9%, but they beat expectations coming at 3.1%, which is still a decline from the previous month, but it is pretty small, so this is a positive reading. Average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) came at +3.4% versus +3.2% 3m/y expected. So, it’s a positive report overall, especially when weighed against expectations.
UK Unemployment Rate – The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8% as expected which is a pretty decent level, being below the natural rate at 5%. Although, the claimant count change (unemployed) came above expectations at 23.2k. But last month’s number was revised lower to 19.1k from 24.7k previously estimated.
ECB’s Rehn Speaking on the Monetary Policy – ECB’s Olly Rehn was commenting earlier that the central bank could strengthen forward guidance, cut rates and relaunch QE programme if needed. The ECB is determined to act in case of further weakening in economic activity and he continues saying that the US-China trade war is unlikely to subside any time soon.
BOE Members Speaking – BOE MPC member, Gertjan Vlieghe, was commenting earlier this morning. He said that the most important thing for policymakers is to do the right thing when a recession happens. The usefulness of a policymaker should never be measured in their ability to forecast a recession. So, is he expecting a recession? A bit later, the BOE MPC member, Michael Saunders popped up saying that the UK could see more rate hikes if Brexit is smooth. He reiterated that the BOE may raise rates faster than the curve implies.
No Brexit Renegotiation for Germany – Germany’s Roth said a while ago that the EU will not renegotiate withdrawal agreement regardless of who the next UK PM is. The EU and its member states cannot be blackmailed into another position. UK PM candidates should bear all this in mind in their leadership campaigns, which means no Brexit deal then.

US Session

US PPI – US producer price index PPI jumped by 0.6% in March but this indicator came back to its normal trend in April, growing by 0.2%. Today’s report showed another decline in the pace of growth as this indicator came at 0.1% as expected. Core PPI missed expectations of 0.2% in April and only grew by 0.1%, but it ticked higher in May to 0.2% as today’s report showed.
Wilbur Ross Speaking on China – US commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross was speaking to CNBC a while ago saying that a definitive China trade deal cannot be made at G20 summit. At most it paves the way for a path forward. US-China trade deal will eventually end in negotiation. Only a high level deal with China is possible at G20 summit.
Trump Taking A Jab at the FED Again – The US President, Donald Trump, was up early and tweeting today. This time he aimed at the FED for tightening the monetary policy too fast. Here’s the tweet:

Bearish EUR/GBP

The trend has been bullish for more than a month
The pullback lower is complete on the H1 chart
Fundamentals are bullish
The 50 SMA is providing support

The price has been hanging around the 50 SMA

EUR/GBP has been on a bullish trend since the beginning of May. It has made retraces lower, but they have ended at moving averages and this pullback lower seems like it might end at the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H1 chart. the price has been hanging around this moving average for a few hours now, so it seems as the 50 SMA is already providing support. The fundamentals are bearish or the GBP, which means bullish for this pair. Although, I might wait a bit longer until the 50 SMA catches up in the H4 time-frame.

In Conclusion

The GBP has been the biggest mover today, moving up and down in a 50-60 pip range. Although in the last hour or so the other pairs are starting to show some signs of life and they are moving against the USD, so this seems like a USD move. The Buck has been bearish last week but yesterday it recuperated some of the losses, so let’s see if the USD will keep yesterday’s gains or whether it will turn bearish again.

Oil Prices Surge Over the Sentiments of Supply Cut – Forex News by FX Leaders

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

Crude oil prices rose due to the strong bullish sentiment. While the expectations that producer cartel OPEC and Russia would like to extend supply output cuts in support of low prices.

Earlier today, the US WTI crude futures were up 0.6% to $53.59. Looks like everyone is focusing on the upcoming meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) which is due on 25-26 July. The OPEC and non-OPEC members are due to decide about the extension of a crude oil output cut. The meeting will help decide the fate of crude oil prices. An extension in the output cut may trigger a bullish trend in oil prices. Conversely, we may see a dramatic sell-off in crude oil prices if cartel decides not to extend the output cut.

As you know, Russia is the cartel’s leading member and does play a significant role in supporting crude oil prices. The market is still looking to hear a clear cut answer on a production cut. Recently, the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak remarked that there was a need to control the oil market to take a sensible decision in July.

Key Trading Levels Today

Support Resistance
53.68 53.93
53.52 54.02
53.27 54.27
Key Trading Level: 53.77

Japanese Yen Drops, GBP Briefly Above 1.27, NOK Outperforms – US Market Open

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – Japanese Yen Drops, GBP Briefly Above 1.27, NOK Outperforms

DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

GBP: Today’s jobs report had been encouraging across the board with wages picking up, while the unemployment rate remained at a 44yr low. Consequently, GBPUSD pushed above 1.27, while EURGBP briefly broke below. While the firmer UK jobs data emboldens the recent hawkish commentary from BoE members, the fact remains the same in that the BoE are largely on the side-lines until Brexit clarity is found. As such, focus on Sterling will remain on who the next PM will be and how that will be impact the Brexit outlook. As it stands, the case for a 2019 rate hike remains doubtful.

NOK: One central bank that will continue its normalisation in interest rates is the Norges Bank. Softer than expected CPI pushed the NOK lower against the USD and EUR, however, volatile components (food prices, airplane tickets) had been the notable drags on inflation, which in turn is unlikely to derail the Norges Bank from raising rates next week. Alongside this, the latest regional network survey had been firmer, having highlighted that growth over the past 3-months had been the highest since Q3 2012, thus not only providing a green light for next weeks rate increase but also raises the potential that the central could perhaps raise its tightening path. This will also depend on how they see the impact of slowing global growth feeding into the domestic economy, which has been resilient thus far.

JPY: The Japanese Yen is softer across the board, with the exception of the New Zealand Dollar as increased risk appetite keeps equity markets bid. Alongside this, with US 10yr yields basing out around 2.06%, now trading at 2.17%, USDJPY has continued to edge higher towards 109.00.

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases

IG Client Sentiment

How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

“EURUSD Price Outlook Cloudy – ECB’s Rehn Talks Rate Cuts and More QE” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
“Currency Volatility: EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDTRY Weekly Outlook” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
“GBPUSD, AUDUSD, Gold, and More – Technical Outlook” by Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
“Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

US Dollar Price Outlook in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

US Dollar Price Outlook Talking Points:

The US Dollar is holding at an area of key support after last week’s aggressive sell-off.
With USD price action holding at a big support level, the door could open for reversal setups in a couple of markets of interest. If, on the other hand, the bearish theme in USD continues, pairs like EURUSD or, perhaps even GBPUSD can be of interest.
DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

US Dollar Holds Key Confluent Support

It’s been a wild start to June across global markets, and with US equities making a strong topside push back towards the highs, the US Dollar is grasping at support on a key area of the chart. We looked into this area yesterday as the USD had intersected with the 200 Day Moving Average at a key Fibonacci level on Friday of last week. Thus far, that area around 96.50 has helped to hold the lows in the Greenback after an aggressive push from bears last week. The big question is whether this support can hold – and for FX traders there are a number of setups of interest for either scenario.

US Dollar Daily Price Chart: June Sell-Off Meets Key Confluent Support

Chart prepared by James Stanley

EURUSD Presses Towards Two-Month-Highs

While the Euro isn’t likely a currency that many traders harbor long-term bullish biases around, on a near-term basis, matters may be a bit different. To be sure, there are a plethora of potential risks around the Euro-Zone, both political and economic in nature. But, these risks have been known for quite some time and for much of the last year, sellers have been in-control of price action in the single currency.

But what happens in a market when anyone who is willing to be and wants to be short already is? If there’s no one left to sell and only those holding short positions, at some point some of those shorts are going to want to close, which requires hitting the bid. And the simple act of prices moving higher could then encourage others to hit the bid, either to close existing shorts or to trigger fresh longs in a reversal strategy. This is where short squeezes come from, and this may be the scenario around the Euro at the moment.

In EURUSD, the down-trend was fairly clear through much of May. Prices appeared very reticent to test through the 1.1100 handle, however, and that bearish trepidation has given way to bullish short-term themes. As looked at in this week’s FX Setups, continued pullback in the US Dollar can allow for a larger retracement in EURUSD, perhaps to the prior zone of range resistance that runs from 1.1448-1.1500.

EURUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

GBPUSD Tests Key Resistance, Prior Support

A similar albeit less pronounced theme has shown in GBPUSD, where sellers really made their mark last month. The pair was oversold for a large part of the period and similar to EURUSD, didn’t begin to bounce until the June open appeared.

In a contrast to the EURUSD setup above, the bounce thus far in GBPUSD has been milder. Prices remain around a key area on the chart that had previously functioned as support, taken from a batch of Fibonacci levels that runs from 1.2671-1.2721. If buyers are able to grab control over the next couple of days, which could be indicated by another short-term higher-high above the Friday swing at 1.2763, the door may soon open for topside strategies, looking for an eventual push towards the confluent zone around the 1.2900 handle.

GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

AUDUSD Holds Key Resistance

On the long-side of the US Dollar, AUDUSD may retain some interest. I had looked at the pair in this week’s FX Setups as one of the more attractive backdrops for a return of USD strength, and the resistance zone investigated has thus far held the highs fairly well.

Current support is showing around a swing support area from last week in the .6950-.6960 area, but after a day of tests, support appears to be slipping. A push below opens the door for a re-test of the .6900 area after which a re-test of the five-month-low around .6860 becomes attractive.

AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

USDCAD Grasps for Support at Two-Month-Lows

Echoing that theme of USD-weakness last week was USDCAD, which put in a very pronounced downside move after having set a fresh high in the week prior. It was a stark change-of-pace for USDCAD price action, and this theme saw prices shed more than 300 pips as bears posed a direct-push down to a key support level, taking out a key trend-line in the process.

USDCAD Weekly Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

That support has since held after being tested throughout yesterday and again this morning. But buyers, at this point, have shown little ability to bring a topside push, as sellers came right back in after a 30-pip bounce yesterday. A break-below this key support level could open the door for a run down to the March lows, taken from around the Fibonacci level at 1.3132.

USDCAD Eight-Hour Price Chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

— Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

WTI Crude Oil Gets Squeezed Between 2 MAs As Uncertainty Prevails – Forex News by FX Leaders

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

Crude Oil was trading on a bullish trend since the beginning of this year after OPEC+ decided to curb the output. But the trend started reversing towards the end of April as the global trade war escalated again and the sentiment in financial markets turned negative. Besides that, the global economy started to weaken again after bouncing for a small period at the start of this year.

Both, the worsening sentiment and the slowdown in the global economy affect risk assets such as crude Oil negatively, hence the reversal in WTI crude at $66.50s. The price formed a couple of supports on the way down, first at $60 and then at $57 where it stalled for some time, but the sellers kept pushing lower and eventually they broke those levels.

Although, a new support has formed in WTI Oil above the $50 level. The price bounced off that support area and climbed around $4 higher, but it ran into the 50 SMA (yellow) on the H4 chart where it found solid resistance yesterday. This moving average pushed the price back down but the 20 SMA (green) turned into support and it has been holding well in the last two sessions.

Now WTI crude seems stuck between these 2 MAs as the 50 SMA keeps pushing lower and the 20 SMA is pushing higher. The range is getting tighter, so we we are likely to see an explosion on either direction. At the moment, the uncertainty surrounding crude Oil is still quite elevated since OPEC+ wants to extend the production cut, which is a positive thing for Oil. But on the other hand, the global economy is slowing down and the trade war is still escalating, which go the other direction for Oil prices. So, the break out of this squeezing range can be on either direction, thus we will see what will affect the Oil market more, OPEC or the trade war.

Has the Bearish Trend of the AUD/CHF Finished? – Forex News by FX Leaders

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

What’s up, fellas.

The Australian Dollar collapsed the other day against its peer currencies after a surprise and steep fall in the value of Chinese goods imports, which ultimately stoked concerns for the health of the world’s second-largest economy and putting the Aussie under pressure again.

China is the biggest trading partner of Australia, which is why any uncertainty related to China also impacts the Aussie.

On the flip side, the haven appeal increases demand for the Swiss currency as its economy is considered to have significant gold reserves. Anyhow, on the technical side, AUD/CHF reached the first significant support at 0.6870.

The leading indicators are suggesting that sellers are exhausted, such as RSI and Stochastic Oscillator are in the oversold area. Awesome Oscillator formed a bullish divergence with the chart. Consequently, we can expect a soon recovery of the pair.

The odds of the rebound from 0.6870 are high. In the middle term, the main target for the pair is located at 0.7018. Nonetheless, before the pair reaches that level, we may see a correction of around 0.6870 with a possible retest of 0.6870. To confirm a trend reversal, it’s worth waiting until the pair breaks above the trendline near 0.6917.

Good luck!

EUR/CHF Completed the Bearish Move, Now it's Reversing to Bullish – Forex News by FX Leaders

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

EUR/CHF was pretty trendy during May. The CHF kept climbing higher as the sentiment kept deteriorating in financial markets due to the escalating trade conflict, which helps safe haves such as GOLD, the JPY and the CHF. As a result, EUR/CHF lost more than 300 pips last month and this pair fell close to 1.11 which is a red flag for the Swiss National Bank SNB.

The SNB had their meeting about two weeks ago and they did their usual ritual of threatening to evaporate the profits of everyone who was selling EUR/CHF, thus talking the CHF down. This pair found support above the 1.11 level once again and started turning bullish last week, which seems to be stretching further to the upside so far this week.

On the H1 time-frame, the price has broken above all moving averages. On the H4 chart, EUR/CHF pushed above the 20 SMA (grey) and the 50 SMA (yellow) last week, while today the price moved above the 100 SMA (green). The 20 SMA seems to have turned into support now on this time-frame, so I will wait for a pullback to the 20 SMA and will look to buy down there.

EURUSD Price Outlook Cloudy – ECB’s Rehn Talks Rate Cuts and More QE

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

ECB primed to intervene if economic weakness continues.
EURUSD unable to break higher, despite US dollar weakness.

Q2 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Bank of Finland governor and ECB governing council member Olli Rehn is back out on the wires Tuesday reiterating that the ECB stands ready to act, using all tools available, to counter the ongoing economic weakness and stubbornly low inflation in the Euro-Zone. Rehn, a candidate for the upcoming ECB President’s role, said that the central bank is ‘determined to act and stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate’. He also noted that ‘external risks to the Euro-Area won’t fade in the near future’.

These instruments include stronger forward guidance, cutting interest rates further, potential changes to bank reserve rates and re-starting quantitative easing (QE). The ECB ended the last QE program at the end of 2018 and a swift re-introduction of the program would highlight the lack of effect the four-year, EUR2.6 trillion+ bond buying program has had on the economy. Growth remains tepid, while inflation expectations are near record lows.

EURUSD price action is currently predicated on US dollar more, more than Euro strength. Post last Thursday’s ECB meeting – where the governing council officially push rates lower for longer – EURUSD touched a peak just under 1.1350 before fading back to its current quote around 1.1318. The pair traded at a 2019 high of 1.1571 on January 10 before sliding lower over the course of 2019. EURUSD remains in overbought territory, using the CCI indicator, and its upside is currently blocked by the 200-day moving average, a long-term indicator that has held firm all the way back to May 2018.

EURUSD Price – Bulls Clash with Technical Resistance

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – June 11, 2019)

Retail traders are 43.8% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed trading bias.

We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking at a trade set-up. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

AUD/USD Forex Signal | DailyForex

Posted on June 11, 2019 by admin

11 Jun

AUDUSD analysis: Choppy short-term consolidation pattern

Yesterday’s signals were not triggered, as there was no bullish price action at 0.6963.

Today’s AUD/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered between 8am New York time Tuesday and 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Long Trades

Go long following some bullish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.6940.
Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

Short Trade

Go short following some bearish price action on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of 0.7047.
Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I wrote yesterday that the technical picture remained interesting as the price had retraced to the support level at 0.6963 which had held up so far. I thought that we may now get another bullish move and there could be a chance to enter here close to this support level with low risk.

I was ready to take a bullish bias if the price was held up by 0.6963 going into the New York session and then started to see some bullish momentum. This was an OK call insofar as it was enough to stay out of trouble: instead of moving up, the price made a slightly bearish choppy consolidation and invalidated the support level at 0.6963.

It may be that the price will bounce at the lower support level of 0.6940, but overall the price looks very choppy and indecisive, so I make no directional call on this currency pair today.There is nothing important due today concerning either the AUD or the USD.